Comments on: Mocktails for Expectant Moms and Hangover-Free Holidays http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/food/2011/11/mocktails-for-expectant-moms-and-hangover-free-holidays/ A Heaping Helping of Food News, Science and Culture Fri, 24 May 2013 17:26:29 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.4 By: WilliamB http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/food/2011/11/mocktails-for-expectant-moms-and-hangover-free-holidays/comment-page-1/#comment-14621 WilliamB Thu, 01 Dec 2011 10:54:18 +0000 http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/food/?p=10749#comment-14621 Before you decide to swear off any food that someone says might harm you or your baby (although alcohol is a clear hazard), have you looked for evidence to back up the claims or thought about the magnitude of the risk? Here's some work I did for someone a few years ago, about listeriosis (which is the reason pregnant women are told to avoid soft cheese, deli meat, etc.): There are about 1500 cases of listeria in the US annually[1]. About one third of those were pregnant women, and 20% of pregnant women with listeria suffer miscarriage. That's 100 miscarriages in a year. Out of 3.7 million live births in the US in 2005[2]. That's one in 37,000 or 0.0027%. In comparison, the risk of miscarriage from amniocentesis is one in 200-400, or 0.25-0.5%. Amniocentesis is described as generally safe and is routinely recommended for pregnant women over 35. Statistics being what they are, and trying to take into account that people eat different amounts of soft cheese, deli meat, etc., I took a look at the issue from a different perspective. According to CDC, 2500 USAns get listeria annually, 500 people die of it annually.[3] That gives an overall rate of 0.00083%. CDC also estimates that pregnant women are 20 times more likely to get listeriosis than healthy adults.[4] That yields a risk rate of 0.016%. That's still a factor of 20 as compared to amnio. Here's a more exact number, from the (British) Association of Medical Microbiologists "On the basis of the number of reported cases in England and Wales the Chief Medical Officer has estimated the incidence of listeriosis in pregnancy to be approximately 1 in 30,000 live and stillbirths."[5] That's close to my original of one in 37,000. [1] OB.GYN News, 1 Aug 05. [2] www.census.gov/prod/2005pubs/p20-555.pdf. [3] www.fsis.usda.gov/Fact_Sheets/Listeriosis_and_Pregnancy_What_is_Your_Risk/index.asp [4] ibid. [5] [3] http://www.amm.co.uk/newamm/files/factsabout/fa_list.htm (1995) Before you decide to swear off any food that someone says might harm you or your baby (although alcohol is a clear hazard), have you looked for evidence to back up the claims or thought about the magnitude of the risk? Here’s some work I did for someone a few years ago, about listeriosis (which is the reason pregnant women are told to avoid soft cheese, deli meat, etc.):

There are about 1500 cases of listeria in the US annually[1]. About one third of those were pregnant women, and 20% of pregnant women with listeria suffer miscarriage. That’s 100 miscarriages in a year. Out of 3.7 million live births in the US in 2005[2]. That’s one in 37,000 or 0.0027%. In comparison, the risk of miscarriage from amniocentesis is one in 200-400, or 0.25-0.5%. Amniocentesis is described as generally safe and is routinely recommended for pregnant women over 35.

Statistics being what they are, and trying to take into account that people eat different amounts of soft cheese, deli meat, etc., I took a look at the issue from a different perspective. According to CDC, 2500 USAns get listeria annually, 500 people die of it annually.[3] That gives an overall rate of 0.00083%. CDC also estimates that pregnant women are 20 times more likely to get listeriosis than healthy adults.[4] That yields a risk rate of 0.016%. That’s still a factor of 20 as compared to amnio.

Here’s a more exact number, from the (British) Association of Medical Microbiologists “On the basis of the number of reported cases in England and Wales the Chief Medical Officer has estimated the incidence of listeriosis in pregnancy to be approximately 1 in 30,000 live and stillbirths.”[5] That’s close to my original of one in 37,000.

[1] OB.GYN News, 1 Aug 05.
[2] http://www.census.gov/prod/2005pubs/p20-555.pdf.
[3] http://www.fsis.usda.gov/Fact_Sheets/Listeriosis_and_Pregnancy_What_is_Your_Risk/index.asp
[4] ibid.
[5] [3] http://www.amm.co.uk/newamm/files/factsabout/fa_list.htm (1995)

]]> By: Kathy http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/food/2011/11/mocktails-for-expectant-moms-and-hangover-free-holidays/comment-page-1/#comment-14618 Kathy Wed, 30 Nov 2011 22:35:57 +0000 http://blogs.smithsonianmag.com/food/?p=10749#comment-14618 Congratulations! Congratulations!

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