July 23, 2012
Worldwide Economic Collapse: Orson Scott Card’s Predictions for 2012
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Orson Scott Card at Brigham Young University in 2008 (Courtesy of Nihonjoe via Wikimedia Commons)
In 1985, author Orson Scott Card made a name for himself with the publication of his now-classic science fiction novel Ender’s Game. His book would go on to win the 1985 Nebula Award for best novel, the 1986 Hugo Award for best novel and would become required reading around the world (I remember reading it in a middle school English class).
But Card is perhaps better known today for his socially conservative political activism. The celebrated author is a National Organization for Marriage board member and has repeatedly spoken out against same-sex marriage, most recently supporting North Carolina’s controversial Amendment One.
Two years after the publication of Ender’s Game, Card contributed to a time capsule which was compiled by the L. Ron Hubbard Writers of the Future contest and filled with predictions for the future. Specifically, the organizers asked contributors, “What will life be like in the year 2012?” The 1987 time capsule was opened this past April in Los Angeles and included contributions not only from Card, but 23 other science fiction writers, including Isaac Asimov, Frederik Pohl, and Jack Williamson.
However you interpret Card’s 1987 predictions ideologically, his vision of the future seems pessimistic to say the least—including worldwide economic collapse and human life without leisure. You can read his time capsule entry in its entirety below.

Orson Scott Card’s 1987 predictions for 2012
We must count ourselves lucky if anyone has leisure enough in 2012 to open this time capsule and care what is inside. In 2012 Americans will see the collapse of Imperial America, the Pax Americana, as having ended with our loss of national will and national selflessness in the 1970s. Worldwide economic collapse will have cost America its dominant world role; but it will not result in Russian hegemony; their economy is too dependent on the world economy to maintain an irresistible military force. A new world order will emerge from famine, disease, and social dislocations. The re-tribalization of Africa, the destruction of the illusion of Islamic unity, the struggle between aristocracy and proletariat in Latin America — without the financial support of the industrialized nations, the old order will be gone. The changes will be great as those emerging from the fall of Rome, with new power centers emerging wherever stability and security are established. The homogeneity of Israel will probably allow it to survive; Mexico and Japan may change rulers, but they will still be strong. If America is to recover, we must stop pretending to be what we were in 1950, and reorder our values away from pursuit of privilege.
The location of the time capsule ceremony points to how much can radically change in 25 short years. The ceremony took place in April 1987 at the Windows on the World restaurant on the 107th floor of the World Trade Center’s North Tower, which was destroyed by the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks. The time capsule was kept in a bank vault until it was opened at a ceremony this past April in Los Angeles.

The 1987 L. Ron Hubbard Writers of the Future time capsule placed in a bank vault (Galaxy Press)
We can probably expect Orson Scott Card to be making headlines in the coming year, though less for his politics and more for his creative output, as Hollywood is currently working on bringing Ender’s Game to the big screen. With director Gavin Hood (Rendition, X-Men Origins: Wolverine) at the helm and actors Asa Butterfield, Harrison Ford and Ben Kingsley starring, the film is set to be released in November 2013.
Reading through the various 1987 predictions for the year 2012 gives us a fascinating peek at the minds of authors who spent a lot of time thinking about the future, and we’ll no doubt look at other predictions from this capsule of yestermorrow in the coming weeks.
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Um, try “Pax Americana”.
Pax Americana, surely?
@Bent @TB You’re right. That was my transcription error. It’s been fixed.
“The homogeneity of Israel will probably allow it to survive…”
I think that pretty much sums up Mr. Card’s worldview. Seems that whole diversity thing isn’t his cup of tea.
When he wrote ‘Ender’s Game’ he was still a young man — and so his imagination could triumph over the old, flabby reactionary tendencies waiting to form.
It is depressing to see his brilliant creative younger writings and then see the reactionary fossilization starting shortly after his biggest triumph. He went totally off the rails for me in the Bush years with his rants against Democrats and liberals and hatred of diversity and Enlightment values. Sad.
That is Russian economy not Russian “enemy”.
Missing the rise of China, calling the prediction relevant. ISHYGDDT
I thought “Ender’s Game” was a children’s book. Not bad, but not as thought-provoking as, for example, Azimov.
Should we really care what this man would have thought of the future? Unless you attribute his idealogy as being part of what would bring about the state of world affairs as he foresaw it.
hmmm…curiouser and curiouser….
sooooo, anyways…..
anybody know when the next Writers of the Future Time Capsule is going to be planted with predictions for 2025 or 2050 or whatever?
“the more things change, the more they stay the same” — me
I have an entire section on the pending economic collapse on my website, from articles and media outlets all over the web. I firmly believe there is enough evidence that confirms this certain/unfortunate future for the US. I hope and pray that more and more folks will adhere to these warnings and prepare their families and themselves to weather the storm that is getting closer and closer with each passing day. Link to my website is below, just click on it and find the category labeled “Economic Collapse” in the menu bar at the top of the page. or you click the 2nd link I put below.
http://thelawsonpost.com/
http://thelawsonpost.com/category/economic-collapse/