July 8, 2009
Climate Change in Your Backyard
Click on the graphic to see what you can expect from climate change.
What kind of changes can you expect as carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere rise? Here are some highlights of changes based on geographic region, from Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, a new report from the U.S. Global Change Research Program:
Northeast: Shorter winters with less snow and more rain; longer summers, more frequent extreme heat waves and declining air quality, especially in cities; more frequent short-term (one- to three-month) droughts; severe flooding from sea level rise and heavy downpours; lobster fisheries shift North; declines in dairy, fruit and maple syrup production.
Southeast: Higher summer temperatures will lead to more human illness, road buckling, a decline in forest growth and a decline in livestock production; decreased water availability, leading to increased conflict over water issues (like in Atlanta in 2007); rising sea levels, more intense hurricanes and bigger storm surges could threaten a large portion of the coast.
Midwest: Reduced public health in the summers due to more heat waves, reduced air quality and more insect and waterborne diseases; declining water levels in the Great Lakes, which will affect shipping, recreation and tourism; more precipitation in the winter and spring, with more heavy downpours; precipitation changes in the summer will bring both more droughts and more floods; managing agriculture and forests will be difficult in a time of rapidly changing climate patterns.
Great Plains: More frequent extreme events, including heat waves and droughts; increases in droughts, evaporation and temperature could exacerbate water management issues, particularly for agriculture and ranching; alterations to unique habitats, such as prairie potholes, could affect native plants and animals.
Southwest: Increasing water scarcity to lead to more conflict between states; higher temperatures, drought, wildfires and invasive species change the landscape of this region; more frequent flooding puts people at risk; tourism and recreation declines.
Northwest: A declining snowpack leads to lower summer streamflows and less hydroelectric output; salmon threatened by the lower streamflows and higher water temperatures; more wildfires and insects and shifts in species threaten both ecosystems and the forest industry.
Alaska: Hotter, drier summers; more wildfires and insect problems; more lake evaporation, which could affect native bird populations and Native peoples who depend on hunting and fishing; thawing permafrost undermines infrastructure, including roads and buildings; loss of sea ice leads to more coastal storms, which threaten villages and fishing fleets; possible declines in key fisheries.
Hawaii, Puerto Rico and other islands: Less freshwater availability; sea level rise and more intense storms threaten island communities; changes to coastal and marine ecosystems will affect fisheries and tourism.
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This is as absurd and unscientific as anything you have ever published. I will not even take the time to detail the gross errors. Just one example of the internal contradictions: How do you have increased precipitation in all seasons in the Midwest and simultaneously lower the levels of the Great Lakes?
Can nothing good, like increased crop production, come from a slight temperature increase and more atmospheric plant food (CO2)?
Smithsonian used to be a respected publication of popular science and history. It’s a pity to see the degree to which it has abandoned real science and documented history and has adopted politics masquerading as science and speculation as fact.
(And Atlanta is my “backyard.” The water disputes have been raging for decades as the Atlanta-area population and that downstream have grown rapidly, but reservoir capacity has not kept apace, because new construction has been impeded by legal action by environmentalists. Climate change has not been a factor.)
When this page loaded there was a banner at the top that said “Surprising Science”. Well I was surprised alright, but not by the science but rather the lack thereof.
Like others I don’t have a lifetime to dispute the gross errors point for point. I will however point out that every region is warned of increasing temperatures. Hilarious, since looking at this year’s temperature record, some regions are as much as 6F below average. So while it is probably accurate to say that odds are on that these places will be warmer in upcoming years, to try to claim that this is some imminent and disastrous effect of Climate Change is a pathetic snake-oil pitch at best.
Where is the Scientist or scientific publication that will distinguish itself by NOT singing the same tune as everyone else? The one that will embody the true spirit of science by questioning the status quo, and BREAKING DOWN ambiguity and political spin. Apparently not at Smithsonian. They have thoroughly embarassed themselves with this fraud, and destroyed their credibility for all time.
Funny thing is they don’t even realize they are contributing to their own doom. What makes them think anyone will want to buy and read science publications after they completely bankrupt and obsolete science with this Global Warming flim-flam hoax?
To the climate change deniers – Please, everytime evidence of climate change is presented, you simply hold your hands over your ears and say “lalalalalala”. Literally THOUSANDS of climate scientists agree that the world is warming and that humans are almost certainly responsible for much of it.
To Derek D – Temperature averages for a single season on a single continent mean nothing. Perhaps your brain is too small to realize the Earth extends beyond your basement.
Scientists absolutely delight in tearing apart each other’s arguments – that’s how they make their living. And yet the vast, vast majority of them agree climate change is real. Why do you think that is?
Do you people who deny global warming also think the Earth is flat and gravity isn’t real?
Where to start…
Jim –
First, you mischaracterize what is written. It does not say “increased precipitation in all seasons.” It says “More periods of both floods and water deficits occur.” The history of the planet shows that when overall temperatures increase there is much more extreme weather events. That means both more water and less water. Now I know that’s hard to understand, as you clearly lack understanding of reading, scientific thinking or skepticism. But this is actually a simple thing. This is why you can look at a historical record and see one year more rain, and one year less. But if you look at the overall effects over not just single years, but over decades, centuries and millenia, the data becomes quite clear.
Second, I’m sure there will be some benefits from climate change…but not for humans and not for many, many species on the planet. And it’s not just CO2 that is increasing. It’s quite a number of other things like methane.
techgm -
Enjoy the future with the increased number and severity of huricanes that’ll be in your “backyard.” The coastal areas around the world will be the worst hit of all.
Derek D -
I’m guessing that you were surprised by the fact that you somehow found your way to a website with actual science. Something tells me you frequent websites of the far-right with their denials of climate change and evolution.
Looking at a single region for a single year is not a scientific method for understanding global environmental change. Year to year there is always change. That’s why you look at a much larger sample of data. The data is very clear…the overall temperature of the planet is increasing. Not only do we have records going back millenia…we have data that shows what happened millions of years ago. Ice cores from around the world all show what is happened, as well as what has happened. While Earth has its own cycles that increase and decrease temperature over time, our current increase is at a rate that has never happened before in Earth’s history. You’d think with millions of years of data, there would’ve been one time in Earth’s history that a cycle was exagerated and would put our current climate change in perspective if this was natural change…but it’s not.
In the scientific community there is no controversy. Change is happening. And nobody knows exactly how bad it will get for humans, but we can be pretty sure that it won’t be good for us. Combine this extraordinary change with the world’s human population increasing and you have a recipe for much suffering.
[...] time we write about climate change, someone writes in saying that they are shocked that Smithsonian would perpetuate such a myth. [...]
[...] I’m being a bit melodramatic in the headline, but every time that I read about the bad things that are predicted to happen—or already are happening—due to climate change, I worry. (And if [...]
There is a terrible reluctance on the part of all “scientists” involved in eco-catastrophe to admit that global warming brings benefits to some. Yet that is precisely why China and India are not interested in slowing the pace of global warming: It will result in a warmer, wetter climate that will greatly expand their agricultural potential, especially in their currently arid Northwest regions.
If there is loss of permafrost in Gambell, Alaska, then buildings will sink. This is a serious issue for the 850 residents of this subsistence village.
It is sad for those who live in Gambell, Ak because there will be no more houses and the babies and family will die!!!!
MacMcF–
China and India re not interested in speeding up climate change. They are interested in becoming more developed, but this is development by the name of a higher GDP per capita which, the majority of the time, does not correlate to environmental protection and justice (yet, this is the development most often sought after by organizations such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank–organiations that live in the pocket of the United States). At the same time, they are not entirely to blame. The US has set the standard of what it means to be developed and developing nations and newly emerging economies are seeking what the US has in an unsustainable fashion–but that is the example that the US has given. Currently, things are changing. China, for example, has announced that it will soon begin construction of the largest photovoltaic solar field in the desert on the Northwest side of the country. Additionally, already a decade ago, the Chinese government decided to work to clean up its power plants. Not saying they’re perfect, but its a start. In India, the population on the coasts (which is a very large portion of the population) will be forced inland by rising sea levels while the fresh water inland will run out as the glaciers continue to melt and eventually disappear. Conflict over water will only highten the intercultural conflict that has plaqued sections of the country for nearly a century. And the arid portions of the country will not become any more hospitable than they are now.
No country wants to see global climate change happen or happen faster. However, if you want to point fingers, the US may be a good place to start with its pursuit of profit over protection.
Also, “wetter” thus far has resulted in damaging floods and rainfalls of record amounts. No agriculture can survive that.
This is sad.
this is sad
This is so not cool. If this happens where are we gonna live?