December 9, 2009
Climate Change: Why We Worry
World leaders and diplomats have gathered in Copenhagen, Denmark this week to figure out what should be the next steps to address climate change. They are convinced that the world is warming in a dangerous way and something needs to be done.
In the United States, though, skepticism is again on the rise, as only 45 percent think that humans are to blame for global warming, according to a CNN/Opinion Research Corporation survey released this week. Another third accept that the world is warming, but they blame natural causes.
I’m not shocked by these results. Every time we write about anthropogenic climate change in the magazine or online, readers write to us saying that we’re crazy.
No, we’re just very well read, and we’ve been convinced by the data.
Think we’re nuts? That collection of hacked emails from scientists, you say? No evidence of a grand conspiracy or hoax. Just scientists acting like humans (though perhaps sometimes naughty ones).
The world hasn’t warmed in the last ten years? You’d be wrong there, too. The World Meteorological Organization said yesterday that 2000 to 2009 was warmer than the 1990s, which were warmer than the decades before.
Perhaps you’d argue that the Earth has survived climate changes in the past, so there’s no need to worry now. Yes, the Earth has survived, but a hotter world will put parts of the world under water and make water scarce in other regions, just to start.
Atmospheric carbon dioxide, measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii since 1956 (via wikimedia commons)
We’ve got higher temperatures and rising ocean acidity, melting glaciers and a disappearing ice cap, birds that have changed the timing of their migrations and farmers that have had to alter their planting schedules, plants that have moved their ranges north and permafrost that has lost its permanency. And, of course, carbon dioxide levels that keep rising to levels never before seen in human times.
This is real, and we are worried.
Even if we lower our carbon emissions and try to stem the tide of climate change, it’s going to be bad. Of course, it will be your children and grandchildren that have to deal with the worst of it (and the developing world, even worse than that), so maybe you’ll decide that all of this won’t harm you and, thus, it’s not your problem. Personally, I’d rather argue now about the best way to fix this problem than leave it to my descendants to figure out how to deal with the climate refugees, civil strife and underwater cities.
But if you want to ignore all of the evidence, then go ahead and bury your head in the sand. Try that on a Florida beach in a time of rising sea level, though, and you’ll probably drown.
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No evidence of a grand conspiracy or hoax. Just scientists acting like humans (though perhaps sometimes naughty ones).
True, there’s no evidence of a grand conspiracy — just scientific fraud by a major research institution.
Yes, the emails show scientists acting like humans. That’s the point, Sarah. Humans lie, cheat, and exaggerate. That’s why people are skeptical. Either scientists are godlike creatures whose every utterance from on high should be taken as gospel, or they’re human beings and we should regard their doomsday prophecies with skepticism.
My own opinion: I think that AGW is probably real, but I think that its effects have been exaggerated. Why?
1. Doomsday scenarios (e.g. Global Cooling, Population Bomb) by environmentalists have never, ever, ever, ever come true. Did you notice that, Sarah? No second ice age, no population explosion leading to mass, civilization-destroying famines. Never happened.
2. The leaders of the AGW alarmism movement live in mansions and fly private jets. They aren’t acting like the End is Nigh. As Glenn Reynolds says “I’ll believe that it’s a crisis when people who say that it’s a crisis start acting like it’s a crisis.”
John, not to bust your chops too badly, but you don’t apply the same criteria to the people arguing against AGW. The petroleum and coal industry say it’s a hoax…and that doesn’t set off your crap detector?
Every time an environmental issue mandates a change (acid rain, DDT, CFCs, PCBs, asbestos, unleaded gasoline, etc, etc, etc) industry and various politicians wail and kvetch that the world will end and our economy will collapse and every time they have been proven wrong.
thought provoking article
Actually, banning DDT has produced some very serious negative consequences, i.e millions of uneccessary deaths from Malaria in Africa. Overreaction to real or perceived threats can have serious consequences. Overreaction to perceived climate change will also produce very serious negative consequences on the prospects for a better life for the poorest populations on earth. Check out the works of Bjorn Lomborg for a detailed perspective on this.